2005, VOLUME 6 #1. "TRANSPORT AND TELECOMMUNICATION". SCIENTIFIC & RESEARCH JOURNAL OF TTI, ISSN 1407-6160
The aim of the journal is to acquaint the readers with the national experience and research activities of various countries in the fields of transport and telematics as well as with the working materials of the European thematic networks and the research projects in this area. This special edition is devoted to the International Conference "Reliability and Statistics in Transportation and Communication" (October 14-15, 2004, Riga, Latvia). The edition includes texts of conference reports written by the authors in a special journal version. The authors have submitted the material in English or Russian in accordance with the official languages of the Conference. Therefore, for the convenience of readers the editorial board has divided the selected materials into three editions - English (Vol.6, No1, No2, 2005) and Russian (Vol.6, No3, 2005).
Journal in Journal: Proceedings
- Title List of the Proceedings
- The Programme Committee and Organization Committee
- Programme of the Conference
- Contents of the Proceedings
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Decision support systems (construction, real estate, facilities management, etc.) created in Lithuania are described in this paper. The above decision support systems comprise of the following constituent parts: data (database and its management system), models (model base and its management system) and a user interface. Presentation of information in databases may be in conceptual (digital, textual, graphical, photographic, video) and quantitative forms. Quantitative information presented involves criteria systems and subsystems, units of measurement, values and initial weight fully defining the variants provided. The databases were developed providing a multiple criteria analysis of alternatives from economical, legislative, infrastructure, social, qualitative, technical, technological and other perspectives. This information is provided in a user-oriented way. Since the analysis of alternatives is usually performed by taking into account economic, quality, technical, legal, social and other factors, a model-base include models which enable a decision maker to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the variants available and make a proper choice. These systems and the related questions were analysed the paper.
Keywords: construction, real estate, Lithuania, decision support systems
Useful insight into the transport sector of the Baltic States was gained from a seminar held in Estonia in November 2003 in terms of realistic assessments of recent progress in restructuring and authoritative projections of promising future programs in the field. This paper draws heavily on the proceedings of the seminar, which were published by the World Bank in March 2004. This paper presents a review of each of the several principal means of transport, namely, roads and road transport, railways, civil aviation, maritime transport, pipelines, urban transport, and transport support services.
Among the notable transport trends in the Baltic States is the rapid growth of demand for transport, growth at a faster rate than that of the gross national product. There has also been increasing demand for consolidated transport related support services. Moreover, privatisation has been widely used as a vehicle to restructure transport and transport infrastructure markets. Public-private partnerships have been introduced as a mechanism for providing good quality transport and infrastructure services at a reasonable cost. Each of the Baltic States has experienced substantial growth in the volume of merchandise exports and imports. This trend is partly a reflection of the rapid growth of transit traffic. The foreign trade of the Baltic States generally shifted toward the EU during the 1990s. Roughly 70 percent of Estonia's foreign trade, both exports and imports was with the 15 EU countries in 2002. The corresponding figure for Latvia is 60 percent and for Lithuania is 50 percent.
In the first quarter of 2004, the share of EU-15 trade was the largest in Estonia. In exports, the share was 68% and in imports 52% of total. In Latvia, the corresponding share in exports was 61% and in imports 49%. In Lithuania, the EU-15 trade covered only 43% of exports and 41% of imports.
Keywords: transport, import, export, infrastructure, market, transport sector
The synthesis of regional (urban) road transport freight system's topological structure enables the assessment of impact exercised by various structural characteristics on the functioning of system. For this reason increases the quality of project solutions in the stage of system structural synthesis. Models of optimisation and simulation (included into the simulation procedure of optimisation of topological structure) have other possibilities as well. For instance, simulation model enables the solution of such various objectives of functional analysis of systems as, for example, the efficiency comparison analysis of stability of structure undergoing the changes of meanings of system's parameters, the analysis of managing impacts of various types, loading technologies, etc.
Keywords: road transport freight; the simulation procedure of optimising
Session 1. Transport Economics
Financial and economic analysis (Internal Rate of Return, Net Present Value, Benefit/Cost ratio) was carried out in order to compare the Rail Baltica project alternatives from the financial and economical points of view. The following revenue sources were considered: infrastructure usage charges paid by the operators; merging of the traffic from road network to the railway: reduction of the maintenance costs of the "Via Baltica" highway, reduction of the road traffic accidents; merging of the traffic from existing railway line to the new one: reduction of the maintenance and operation costs of the existing line, reduction of the accidents on existing line (e.g. on the level crossings). While considering as costs: capital investment costs, construction costs, land acquisition costs, infrastructure maintenance and operation costs.
Keywords: multimodal, subsection, costs, revenues, TEN corridor
In Lithuania, after joining the European Union, the system of monetary exchange between the load senders and operators (between juridical subjects) drastically changed. With appearance of common economic space, also, the principles of monetary exchange between transport firms changed, with firms that are located in different areas of European Union.
After joining the European Union the value-added tax (VAT) of different tariffs was applied and by starting to use it certain short-term difficulties appeared, in particular, when the documents had to be prepared by applying VAT, special discount VAT or zero VAT.
In transport sector this is very acute problem because the use of different applications of VAT when products are being transported on export into certain countries that is not part of European Union, in that case, in procession of a definite document (declaration on export), from a country that is a part of European Union, in that case VAT is not applied. This paper deals with the schemes of VAT and the following analysis - what the influence these taxes make on the work of transport and freight forwarders companies.
Keywords: value-added tax, European Union, transport and freight forwarders companies
An extensive set of national and international rules regulating passengers transportation by rail transport are acting in Lithuania. The impacts of the wide array of regulations have on the passengers transportation industry fall into three main categories: access to the market, competition, general operating conditions. European rail transport operations and market liberalization are covering 2001/12EC, 2001/13EB, 2001/14 directives.
JS Lithuanian Railways are enforcing government undertakings and from the cargo transportation profit are covering more the 30 millions euro losses for the passengers transportation. Presently JS Lithuanian Railways can't disclaim cross financing whereas government is not prepared to implement public transport service.
Keywords: passengers, market, liberalization, railways, transportation
Transport is one of the mostly regulated economic sectors in Europe. Every country regulates its transport system with the aim to achieve its objectives in the field of transport policy. The state implements its transport policy by applying respective methods to influence transport enterprises or enterprises, participating in the transportation process, basically, those that are drafting the legal framework for the regulation of the transport activities, as well as laws or other legal acts. One of the major problems of the railway transport is its insufficient independence from the state policy and regulation, inadequate separation of activities (refusal of cross-subsidisation and infrastructure maintenance from the revenues generated in freight transportation) and financing of infrastructure.
Keywords: transport, liberalisation, railway, freight transportation
The Latvian macroeconomic policy objectives are viewed in this paper. The authors analyse monetary and fiscal policy tools in the development of economics of Latvia in accordance to Mandell-Fleming small open economic model context and EMU joining. In the given paper mathematical and economic methods of economic development forecasting modelling are considered.
Keywords: economic modelling, rational expectations theory, artificial intelligence systems, artificial neuron network, econometric models
This paper discusses the issue of confidence indicators and their usefulness in forecasting of the sectors of the Latvian economy. In contrast to the previous research on the composite confidence indicators [1, 2], special attention is paid to the information content of business surveys, and not only to the composite confidence indicators that are based on the results of mentioned surveys. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the information contained in the key Latvian business surveys that cover much wider range of economic activity than composite confidence indicators do.
Several aspects are examined in the paper: the extent to which surveys are correlated with economic variables that they are designed to track; advantages in terms of timeliness; the degree to which surveys are forward. In summary, Industrial business survey series could be viewed as a useful operative source of information for the short-term forecasting of important economic development statistical indicators. The short-term forecasting of other sectors' that are closely related to the industry (for example, sector of
Transport, storage and communications) could benefit as well by involving into the forecasting process the most relevant confidence indicators of Industrial business survey series.
Keywords: Latvia, business surveys, confidence indicators, short-term forecasting
Session 2. Statistical Applications
The necessity of cluster analysis results validation are determined by a large number of cluster analysis methods, by receiving of different results for one and the same data while using different methods, and as well in the majority of all cases by absence of preliminary knowledge about cluster structure. The decisions about optimal number of clusters for the given structure, about correct and stable partitions are the main moments that demand validation. The two methods for validation of results are considered in the paper. The first one is based on the relative tests, and gives the opportunities to define the most likelihood number of classes; the goal of second one is to test the robustness of results and based on external tests. These methods were realized as user scripts on the STATISTICA BASIC in-built language.
Keywords: cluster, validation, index, number, result
The single-period problem (SPP), also known as the newsboy or newsvendor problem, is to find the order quantity that maximizes the expected profit in a single period probabilistic demand framework. Interest in the SPP remains unabated and many extensions to it have been proposed in the last decade. These extensions include dealing with different objectives and utility functions, different supplier pricing policies, different news-vendor pricing policies and discounting structures, different states of information about demand, constrained multi-products, multiple-products with substitution, random yields, and multi-location models. Most stochastic models for determining the optimal solutions for the newsboy problem are developed in the extensive literature under the assumptions that the parameter values of the underlying distributions are known with certainty. In actual practice, such is simply not the case. When these models are applied to solve realworld problems, the parameters are estimated and then treated as if they were the true values. The risk associated with using estimates rather than the true parameters is called estimation risk and is often ignored. When data are limited and (or) unreliable, estimation risk may be significant, and failure to incorporate it into the model design may lead to serious errors. Its explicit consideration is important since decision rules that are optimal in the absence of uncertainty need not even be approximately optimal in the presence of such uncertainty. The aim of the present paper is to show how the statistical decision equivalence principle may be employed in the particular case of finding, from the statistical data, the effective statistical solutions for the multi-product newsboy problem with constraints. An example is given.
Keywords: newsboy problem, constraints, inventory control, statistical decision equivalence principle
The application of resampling approach to the linear regression model analysis is considered. It is known that the mean square estimators are the best estimators in case of regression model without nuisance observations. Alternatively, in the case of model with nuisance observations, called disturbed model, the classical approach can give bad, biased estimators. We consider an approach to estimating the linear regression model, called resampling median estimators of the model. It belongs to the family of computer intensive statistical methods and can be effectively used for the models with disturbed observations estimation. It shows comparatively good results, which are illustrated by the numerical example.
Keywords: linear regression model, resampling methods, median estimators
In freight transportation, when the cargo is carried from one terminal to some others (or from several terminals to one area), the delay time of vehicles and loading equipment may be considerable, because their operation is not well coordinated. In the present investigation, the appropriate number of transport and loading facilities needed to ensure their coordinated work at the terminal is determined. The problem of transportation is analysed in terms of mass service assignment. The problems of stock management and proper choice of transport facilities are defined and analysed taking into account the relationship between cost of transportation and vehicle's capacity and size of cargo lots. By using mathematical statistical methods, the optimal vehicle's capacity for a particular lot on the routes for taking the cargo out as well as the periodicity of cargo delivery is determined.
Keywords: loading equipment, time of vehicle's turnover, organization of freight transportation
Airline seat inventory control is about "selling the right seats to the right people at the right time". In this paper, the problem of determining optimal booking policy for multiple fare classes in a pool of identical seats for multi-leg flights is considered. During the time prior to departure of a multi-leg flight, decisions must be made concerning the allocation of reserved seats to passengers requesting space on the full or partial spans of the flight. It will be noted that in the case of multi-leg flights the long-haul passengers are often unable to obtain seats because the shorter-haul passengers block them. For large commercial airlines, efficiently setting and updating seat allocation targets for each passenger category on each multi-leg flight is an extremely difficult problem. This paper presents static and dynamic models of airline seat inventory control for multi-leg flights with multiple fare classes, which allow one to maximize an expected contribution to profit. The dynamic model uses the most recent demand and capacity information and allows one to allocate seats dynamically and anticipatory over time.
Keywords: aircraft, transportation, data, model-based control, optimization
For the purpose of making safe and convenient traffic road conditions Gravel Road Paving Projects have been implemented in Lithuania since 1998. According to the 1998-2000 Paving of Gravel Roads Program and 2001-2004 Investment Project of Lithuanian Roads (Gravel Roads) during 1998-2004, 1,5 thousand km of national and regional gravel roads have been paved. Gravel road selection for paving was based on traffic volume and by considering road conditions and road structure's material quality. Traffic is grouped as follows: low traffic volume, moderate traffic volume, high traffic volume and very high traffic volume. By referring to the data of statistical analysis, this paper presents the distribution and grouping of roads according to traffic. Based on this, the zoning of the Lithuanian territory has been carried out. Research data to improve traffic conditions and to solve regional roads problems through the use and implementation of the principles of sustainable development have also been investigated and summarized.
Keywords: development, road network, traffic, and statistical analysis
One important problem in data base management is checkpointing of computer systems. This problem deals with determining optimum checkpoints. A checkpoint is established by copying the contents of primary memory (which can be affected by failures) into a secondary memory device. When a failure does occur, the contents of the checkpoint have to be copied back into primary memory and re-executed. Infrequent checkpoint operations tend to result in a large number of transactions in need of re-execution after a failure, thus, resulting in long recovery operations during which the system is unavailable. On the other hand, frequent checkpoints are undesirable as the system is also unavailable during their creation, which is the copying of primary memory into a secondary storage device. How frequently checkpointing should be done, however, is a very practical question that does not appear to have been addressed satisfactorily in the literature. The tradeoffs in determining optimal checkpoints involve the system unavailability during the checkpoint operation versus the possibility of system failure leading to long recovery periods. In this paper, we treat checkpointing policies. We derive the total expected loss time and obtain the optimum checkpointing policy, which minimizes that expected loss time. First, we discuss the model in which the intervals between checkpointing completion times may vary, and secondly the model with constant intervals.
Keywords: computer system, job failure, checkpointing policies
Quantitative and qualitative methods of evaluating the available alternatives and making an optimal choice in solving social, economic and technological problems are widely used. Quantitative methods are based on the significances of the criteria describing the evaluated object and on the numerical values of the criteria weights. The paper considers subjective, objective and integrated approaches to determining the criteria weights as well as providing case studies of their actual applications.
Keywords: significance of criteria, subjective and objective evaluation, multicriteria models
Session 3. Transport and General Management
There are considered the issues of providing the Universal telecommunications service in Latvia, taking into account the peculiarities of development of economics and telecommunications infrastructure. According to the demands of the European Union, the Latvian government has to establish the Universal telecommunications service - a minimum set of services of a definite quality which will be available to all users at an affordable price, irrespectively of their geographical location.
Under the conditions of a liberalized market, the main task of every entrepreneur is decreasing of costs and increasing of revenues. Owing to this, it is quite natural that entrepreneurs aspire to offer their services to those customers and in those regions, where it would be profitable. An operator would not provide its services to economically disadvantageous customers, if it did not have the corresponding obligations to do so. Therefore it is very important to solve the question of compensation of risk, which is involved in installation of new telephone lines in the underdeveloped regions of Latvia.
In comparison with highly developed countries of the European Union, Latvia is characterized by a low penetration rate of telephone lines and varying penetration rates in urban and rural areas. Besides, a relatively large number of Latvian inhabitants are on the edge of poverty. Thus, introducing the Universal telecommunications service requires solving of many tasks and problems, which are formulated and examined in this work.
Keywords: Universal telecommunications service, liberalized market, financing mechanism
Seeking to successfully solve transport problems it takes a lot of various economic measures and actions in improving technical vehicles (rolling-stock, stationary equipment, etc.), uniform planning and controlling of the transport system as well as the economic mechanism of transport. All these issues must be solved by applying a systemic analysis so that the resources allotted to functionality and development of transport are used in the most effective way.
Considering the fact that the task of transport companies is to use the available resources (employees, vehicles, warehouses, etc.) as efficiently and optimally as possible, therefore the activity-planning model of a transport company must be created. The optimization criterion of the activity-planning model of a transport company is maximum profit, and the task of modelling is to find the meanings of the criteria, which would make maximum profit.
Keywords: activity-planning, profit increased, planning model
It is universally accepted that the influence of logistic activity on the social and economic development of the global community in XX century was enormous. The importance of advantages offered by wellperformed logistic activity in the economic competitive struggle has increased significantly since logistics has turned from the competitive advantage to the competitive necessity. In Lithuania the economic logistic activities have become most integrated in the international business (transport, forwarding, distribution, etc.). Therefore, we can state that ensuring of favourable conditions for these activities must be one of the strategic tasks of the state regulation in order to minimize the impact of the state regulation related factors complicating the logistic activity. One of these is the corruption factor directly originated from the state regulation. Corruption is especially harmful to the logistic activity, business, and the whole economy since it violates the principles of equality in the competitive struggle.
Having studied the logistic activities which are most influenced by the corruptive factors and the elements of the logistic chain, this work provides the analysis of the resistance of the logistic chain to the permeability of the complicating factors, analysis of factors encouraging corruption in logistics, and the analysis influence of the corruption perception index on the international relations of Lithuania. The data of the national surveys of businesspeople and individuals made by the United Kingdom and Lithuania's public opinion and market research company Baltijos Tyrimai was used in this work. Corruption is an essential factor existing on a large extent, which destroys the free market existence principles. Since the level of logistic integration in all economic fields is very high, it is necessary to reduce the impact of the factors complicating logistics, which is analyzed in this work.
Keywords: logistics, corruption, corruption perception index, free market questions.
Article analyzes the following: benchmarking concept, types of benchmarking, benchmarking process, benchmarking needs in Lithuanian transport. Benchmarking is used to improve performance by understanding the methods and practices required to achieve world-class performance levels. Benchmarking has very different types: performance benchmarking, strategic performance, process benchmarking, functional benchmarking, internal benchmarking, external benchmarking, international benchmarking. Benchmarking proceeds in the following phases: planning, data collection, analysis, adaptation and implementation of good practices.
Keywords: benchmarking, benchmarking process
After joining EU the readiness of country's economy sectors to compete within EU became very important. Equally important task is suitably representing EU outside its frontiers. The transport system could be one of the most up-and-coming economy branches in development of EU commercial relations with the Eastern countries.The integration process requires higher requirements for transport companies, which want the successful action in environment of always growing competition. Here we will try to analyse the questions of forming and development of marketing strategies in whole Lithuanian transport system as well as in transport companies. It is clear the absence of creation and implementation of modern marketing strategies in Lithuania's transport systems. Here we will emphasize on methodological marketing planning, the use of objective resources and evaluation of costs efficiency
Keywords: strategy, planning, marketing complex, efficiency, image
The theme and subject of this study is very topical for today's Lithuanian tourism market because of the fast development of hotel construction industry, also because of increasing negative tourism market forecast of experts, who are saying what hotel market overstocked in Vilnius. Subject and methods of study: Particular hotel building project in Vilnius city was selected as the research subject and it is taken under consideration in economical aspects. Decision support system applying multiple criteria synthesis methods in construction were applied for results evaluation. Objectives: Objectives of this study are design of a model, which would support decision making for a hotel construction on a selected site, reduction of experts scope of work, and increase of reliability of expert's estimation. Conclusions: The model helps to estimate economical utility of a hotel construction on a selected site. The model is designed just for Vilnius. For the application in other areas, some of criteria estimations must be revised.
Keywords: multiple criteria decision support, synthesis, integrated indicators
When choosing the most effective investment variant in construction, a major problem is faced: most often actual demand for resources is underestimated. Therefore, in this paper only those indicators that have the greatest impact on further comparison of alternatives are presented. A practical model of information flow management among all members of construction is described. Also, a lack of constant mutual information flows between the stages of design and construction works is emphasized. In order to solve the current problem, a theoretic three-dimensional (3D) information model of a building is developed, which is combined with resource demand calculations, comparison of alternatives and determination of duration of all the stages of investment project life. The software based on this combined 4D PLM model is to be created as a means to manage effectively the investment project, starting from planning, designing, economical calculations, construction and afterwards to manage the finished building and to utilize it.
To estimate the most effective investment variant, it is reasonable to use the appropriate multiple criteria evaluation software.
Keywords: automated management; 3D and 4D modelling; investment in construction